Atharv Kumar Blog ISP
Blackjack: Reflection & Profitability
Poker: Reflection & Profitability
Blackjack Strategies
I started with a simulated net worth of $100 and tested three different blackjack methods for fifty hands each. I shuffled the deck myself and recorded the results. My goal was to test each one and see how it played out in an actual session.
For the first, I kept flat betting and strictly followed the strategy chart, betting five dollars for every hand. No instincts, no guesses. Directly, I got a 10 and a 2. Dealer showed a 2 up. Chart told me to hit. Hit a 10 and busted at 22. Didn't feel right, but I just stuck with the system. Had 11 later against a dealer 6. Doubled and drew an 8. Dealer showed 10, then drew a 6 and busted. That hand brought me back even. Good round when I got a pair of 8s against a dealer 10. Split them, got a 3 on one and a 10 on the other. Had 21 and 18. Dealer took a 10, then a 9, then a 3 and busted 22. Won both. That was the sole round in which the strategy seemed to play the way that it was supposed to. I was at $93 after fifty hands. Not losing, not winning. I remained in for the entire session.
Then I experimented with a variation in which I raised my bet five dollars following every win and reverted to five upon a loss. I kept playing with the basic strategy chart but wondered what the win streaks would be like if the bets were increasing. Won at five straight away, won at ten straight away, then lost at fifteen straight away. Still in the lead a bit. At some point, I landed on a three-hand streak and had me up to a twenty-dollar bet, but lost the next one and dropped fast. The most infuriating aspect was that when the bet went up, I started playing badly. I had sixteen to a ten, the chart told me to hold, but I hit anyway. Drew a ten and busted. That hand cost me twenty. I ended the session at $102. Made money technically, but didn't play well.
The final one was just hitting on anything seventeen and below and standing on seventeen plus. No chart, no choices except for the total. One day I got thirteen and the dealer had a six. I hit, took a ten, and busted. Dealer took ten and then another ten and busted. I would have been a winner if I stood. That kept happening over and over. I missed double downs. I never did break up. I just played robotically. When it ended, I had $78. It wasn't a crash, but rather a steady decline of playing bad hands incorrectly.
Out of the three, the only one that ever made me feel like I knew what I was doing was the flat betting from basic strategy. I still lost, but I was in charge the whole time. I knew what I was doing in every move, and I never had to play catch-up with anything. The other two introduced pressure or eliminated thought altogether. I didn't expect the chart to be the best, but it was the only one that didn't make me question everything.
Blackjack Reflection
After attempting all three blackjack strategies, the biggest difference wasn't with the money, it was with the feeling that each provided. When I was flat betting with the chart, I didn't win much, but I didn't worry about it either. Every choice was based on something, and when I lost a hand, I didn't feel like I had made a bad decision. The session went up and down, but I stayed steady the whole time.
The raise-on-wins policy made the game heavier. When my bet went up, I tighten up. I played the hands differently. I hit when I shouldn't have, just because I did not want to lose a big bet. It was awkward to figure out that the size of the chips affecting me led to the way I perceived the hand. Even though I won, I only did so due to one run. I was not comfortable with it.
The under-17 hit was a disaster. I disregarded the dealer's upcards. I didn't double down. I never split pairs. I wasn't making choices, I was simply reacting. I was giving away so many wins that I could see the difference in cash. I was playing the game as if half the rules were switched off.
I dug it up later. The house edge on perfect play Blackjack is half a percent. That's acceptable, but only if you don't screw it up. Every bad hit or double miss adds to the edge. And when you're over one or two percent, you might as well be playing to lose.
If I had to keep playing, I'd just keep flat betting and the chart. I did not win, but I also never lost my head. Slow and steady for me, than dumb calls and wild swings. Blackjack does not pay for taking risks like everybody thinks it does. It merely slowly penalizes bad habits until the money's gone.
Poker Strategies
I started this poker session with one hundred dollars and conducted two full simulations using different strategies. The first was loose and passive. I played almost everything that looked even a little bit playable. The second was tight and aggressive. I folded most of the hands and only got involved when I had a reason. I pursued both styles to see how they really worked.
Loose-passive running, I was calling many hands that I recognized were bad. Hands like 8♦ 5♦, J♣ 6♣, 7♠ 9♠. Connected or suited, I convinced myself to see a flop. Usually, I missed and folded to a bet. I would limp into pots and not raise too often, easily folding if I didn't get better. A hand I do remember, I played 10♠ 9♠ and received A♦ 6♥ 3♣ on the flop. Did nothing. Someone bet small, I called for the sake of boredom, and folded the turn. This was the same cycle over and over again. I'd get pulled in, miss, and lose it. I played forty hands and finished at seventy-two dollars. I didn't lose because of one good hand. I lost slowly, hand for hand, by playing hands I shouldn't and folding every time it wasn't profitable.
For the tight-aggressive session, I played just the hands that really had some equity. I folded almost everything unless I was in a favorable position or had something like A-Q, K-Q, pocket tens or better. I raised preflop almost every time I sat down. I was dealt A♣ Q♣ late position and raised. One caller. The Q♠ 8♠ 3♦ came on the flop. I bet two-thirds of the pot. They called. Turn was a blank. I bet again, and they folded. I didn't have to do anything special. I just played the hand the way it was supposed to be played.
I was given another hand of pocket jacks. I raised, was called. The flop was low and clean. I bet strong again and folded. I played fewer hands overall, but when I did play, I had control. At the end of forty hands, I had one hundred and nine dollars. It wasn't a crazy win, but it felt like I had worked for it.
The two sessions were pretty different. When I played loose, I lost control. I came in with hands that lacked a solid plan behind them, and I folded as soon as it felt tight. The pots that I did win were too small to cover the ones that I lost. When I played tight, I made fewer mistakes. I avoided positions where I had to guess, and I made more money as a result. I did not have to bluff as much. I just bet when I had something and folded when I did not.
If I was going to do it again, maybe I might open tighter in the tight style. Maybe add some suited connectors late position or small pairs if the table was playing weak. But the overall approach worked. Play good hands, raise preflop, and do not be tricky.
The vast majority of players probably played as I did in that initial session. Flushing too much. Playing marginal hands. Hoping something will hit. That's the most expedient way to incrementally lose money. The tighter style gave me better hands, better spots, and better results. It also gave me more table confidence. I wasn't just reacting. I was playing with purpose.
I see now why so few players profit in the long run. The game isn't about enormous bluffs or insane wins. It's about not repeating dumb mistakes over and over again. That's what I'm going to remember most. You don't have to be flawless. You just have to stop being careless. That alone can be the difference.
Poker Reflection
When I was playing loose, I was losing. I wasn't getting destroyed, but I was leaking off chips one hand at a time. I'd call with hands that were reasonably okay, fold when they missed, and just keep on doing it. Nothing was really working well, and even when I did hit something, the pots were never large enough to offset all of the small losses.
Tight-aggressive play changed the entire feel of the session. I folded more often than I played, but when I did play, I was in command. I raised preflop, I c-bet when I had something, and I did not bluff unless the situation called for it. I was not trying to be tricky. I was just playing clean poker.
Bluffing was one of the weakest tools, however this could have been because it was a simulation against trained/programmed bots, not real humans. Most times when I tried it without any backing, I got called or raised and had to fold. It only worked when I already had some component of the hand, so I stopped trying to push it.
I searched up the stats and found that only ten to fifteen percent of players don’t lose money in the long run. Tight and focused play seemed like something I could maintain, while loose play felt like throwing money away and hoping something would happen.
I did not win often, and not every strategy produced results, but when I stuck to a gradual, patient strategy, and didn’t let any instinctual feelings affect my decisions, I was able to slowly profit.